DrumBeat: November 5, 2007
Posted on November 5, 2007 | Filed Under | Leave a Comment
Simmons Spells it out - but When Will the Ostriches Get Their Heads Out of the Sand?
“If I was redoing Twilight in the Desert today, I’d sharpen the severity of the warning quite significantly.
“May, 2005, still stands out as the all-time record high for global crude production - 74.3 million barrels per day, and now we’re down 1.2 million barrels per day. The IEA shrug that off, saying that if you look back over the last few years, records have been set several times; a peak followed by a falling off, then another peak, and so forth.
“That’s an interesting thesis. But as we watch Mexico start into its big-time decline and UK and Norway continue their rapid declines, plus Indonesia, Egypt, Argentina and others besides - you can see several years of relentless decline. Add them up and say, find me one area coming on in the next few years that will halt such a collective decline - it’s just not there.
“Major oil companies have quadrupled their spending over the past five years and, other than acquisitions, basically they’re in liquidation.”
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All Peaked out and No Place Else to Go but Do-o-o-w-n
“PEAK oil is now”, proclaims a hard-hitting study of global resources by the German-based Energy Watch Group.
Its predictions are dire: global oil output peaked in 2006 at 81 million barrels per day, will slide to 58 million bpd by 2020 and 39 million bpd by 2030.
This is in sharp contrast to the International Energy Agency, which predicts 105 million bpd by 2020 and 116million by 2030, though offline, there is a growing view at the IEA that its projections are too optimistic.
OPEC output rise would not affect prices - Algeria
The world oil market is well-supplied and any decision by OPEC to increase crude output at its meeting next month would not stop prices from climbing, Algerian Energy and Mines Minister Chakib Khelil said on Monday.
Crude economics
Addicts are not always put off by high prices. Sometimes the cost of the drug makes the craving more dangerous. But a world addicted to fossil fuels is in serious need of cold turkey. It could be getting it now from rapidly rising oil, gas and coal prices. The price of crude oil is close to $100 a barrel, up almost $40 since last year and at an all-time high. That has added to worries about a global economic downturn, and if it is sustained the price will have a negative effect, especially in the US. But the real problem with oil’s current price is not that it is too expensive, but that it is still much too cheap.
The New New Fuel
BURLINGAME, CALIF. - Turning wood chips into fuel isn’t quite like turning water into wine, but it’s still a pretty impressive feat. On Tuesday, a company backed by Vinod Khosla, one of Silicon Valley’s most successful venture capitalists, will break ground on a plant that will do just that.
Range Fuels, a Colorado-based start-up funded by Khosla Ventures, is building the first commercial-scale plant in the U.S. (and very likely in the world) that will produce the next generation of ethanol–called cellulosic ethanol–in the small town of Soperton, Ga., about three hours south of Atlanta.
Is the Oil and Energy Bubble About to Burst?
With crude reaching for $100 a barrel, one should start being cautious. Here in the US we are still taking these oil prices fairly well, but elsewhere (such as China or Iran) we are already hearing that these high oil prices are slowly starting to create social pressures and increasing tensions turned toward those governments. And stress of that nature could mean that we are nearing a turning point in this “never-ending” energy boom.
Scotland: Thousands ‘in ‘fuel poverty’ as energy costs increase
HUNDREDS of thousands of households are living in “fuel poverty” because of soaring energy costs, campaigners warned today.
Some 600,000 households and 100,000 children in Scotland have been hit by rocketing fuel prices between 2003 and 2006, they said.
Do you know how Oil originated?
Demand for oil began to increase from the middle of the eighteenth century. During the Industrial Revolution, oil was needed for lighting homes and factories. Before petroleum, whale oil was commonly used to make candles and as fuel for lamps.
However, the supply of whale oil was running low and the price had skyrocketed. At that time petroleum was obtained by distilling it from coal, by skimming it from ponds and streams, and by oil shale retorting. None of these processes could meet the rising demand for oil.
Food pantries worry about bare cupboards
Andrea Helms, the food bank’s communications director, said several factors have made its work more difficult over the last few years. Some of those include:
The increasing cost of fuel that’s needed to transport food.
A decrease in the amount of food distributed to regional food banks by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. In fiscal year 2002, 31 percent of the Tarrant Area Food Bank inventory came from the USDA. In September, that had dropped to about 7 percent.
Grocery stores selling more of their nonperishable foods, like canned goods, to secondary market stores or dollar stores. Thus, they have less nonperishables to donate to nonprofits.
Driven by high energy prices, coal mining makes a comeback in Wales
Two decades ago, Britain was shutting coal mines and coal miners were staging desperate and sometimes violent strikes in a vain attempt to save their jobs.
Now, near-record-high energy prices on world markets are bringing the traditional work of mining back to Wales, one of the poorer regions of Britain.
Canadian oil industry basks in profits, and tax cuts
Crude oil prices are at record highs, and showing no signs of declining. Most of its current production is either conventional or from the oilsands, both at historic costs that are far below current price levels. The oil industry’s success in limiting Canada’s refining capacity has paid off massively, quietly generating superprofits in the refining and distribution end of the business.
Profits are fattening balance sheets and individual bank accounts at a rate that would make one of the legendary robber barons of the late 19th century blush.
Indonesian fuel subsidy soars amid oil price rise
The fuel subsidy in the Indonesian state budget is estimated to hit 90 trillion rupiah this year (about 9.8 billion U.S. dollars) against the initial projection of 55 trillion (6 billion dollars) due to soaring oil prices, an official said Monday.
Japan’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise 6.4% From 1990 Levels
Japan’s greenhouse gas emissions rose 6.4 percent in the year ended March from 1990 levels, forcing the government to quicken measures to ensure the country meets its Kyoto Protocol target.
Thailand: Oil Fund starts contribution cut
With immediate effect, the contributions that retailers have to pay the Oil Fund for the sale of every litre of all fuel products would be cut by 40 satang per litre.
South Africa: Oil price heralds gloom
Consumers have little reason for cheer, as rapidly rising oil prices and the prospect of another interest-rate increase by the Reserve Bank look likely to put the brakes on festive-season spending.
Nuclear energy and economic growth in India
An examination of data published by the International Energy Agency indicates that India is the 5th largest producer of electricity in the world. However, while India is amongst the top 10 countries of the world in terms of production of electricity by hydro, coal, oil and gas, it is nowhere near the top 10 with respect to nuclear power generation. For a large country like India with its recognized advanced capability in nuclear power technology, this is an anomaly in need of correction.
Whatever Happened to Fuel Cells?
In 2003, President George W. Bush called for a billion-dollar initiative to make fuel cells the future replacement of the gasoline engine. These clean battery-like devices produce electricity by combining hydrogen and oxygen and giving off only water.
But four years down the road, not many besides California’s Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger have been behind the wheel of a fuel-cell car, and a big reason for this is the paucity of hydrogen fuel filling stations.
Green movement is changing design
Now imagine if you could design your own car to achieve the level of fuel economy you sought and later work with the EPA to certify that the car met your objectives.
That’s the kind of validation a growing number of building owners are seeking in Eastern Iowa through a certification program called LEED, for Leader in Energy and Environmental Design.
Richard Heinberg’s Museletter: Big Melt Meets Big Empty
If people in the industrializing countries (particularly China and India) continue to burn more coal and drive more cars, they will metaphorically cook the planet. These nations have the highest growth rates for fossil fuel emissions, and China is set to soon become the world’s foremost carbon emitter if it has not already done so. These nations are in effect saying to North America, Europe, and Japan, “Agree to reduce your emissions faster than we do, or we won’t reduce ours at all and the entire planet will burn.”
This Grand Bargain could amount to an unprecedented shift of the world’s economic center of gravity. During decades of “development” policy and aid, the disparity between rich and poor only grew; now, however, the poor world has a weapon - even if its use implies a suicide pact.
U.S. dilemma: Targeting Iran’s oil industry could hurt America more
“If Iran sees US $100 a barrel oil, Iran is likely to conclude, and it may well be true, that no matter how severe the sanctions … the regime could sneak by,” said Matthew Levitt, a former U.S. Treasury Department terrorism expert, who is now with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Yet long-term, finding some way to target Iran’s oil is crucial, some analysts say, because its oil exports generate billions of dollars in hard currency, providing Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad with strength to defy the international community.
Will Iran celebrate the 100th anniversary of its oil discovery with $100 petroleum?
Oil prices have surpassed a record US$96 a barrel. Given the growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East involving an imminent war between the Turks and the Kurds over the future of oil-rich Kirkuk and the prospect of an independent Kurdish state, and the current standoff about Iran’s nuclear program, petroleum prices may cross over $100 a barrel in coming months.
ExxonWhat? PetroChina Is the New No. 1
It was a record-setting day for PetroChina. With an $8.9 billion debut in Shanghai, the state-controlled oil-and-gas producer laid claim to raising the greatest amount of money of any new listing globally this year. By the end of the first day of Shanghai trading on Nov. 5, PetroChina’s share price had more than doubled, to 59¢, up 163%.
Oil Companies Compete for Bahrain Facility Upgrade
“They are bidding for a number of things - the most important thing is to use new technology to increase the level of production of the Bahrain field and also to increase the level of reserves. So the benefit is two-fold - an increase in both the production of oil and gas and the reserves of oil and gas,” Dr Mirza says.
Kuwait oil minister quits
Kuwait government has accepted the resignation of its new oil minister, Bader al-Humaidhi, just eight days after he took the job at the world’s seventh-largest oil exporter.
US-Canada War Looms Over Energy, Water
Washington’s new tensions with its northern neighbor and largest trading partner appear to be over perceived Canadian reticence to support US imperial adventures in the Middle East. But the vast resources of Canada itself—made more critical both by instability in the energy-rich Mideast and by shortages of such basic commodities as water brought on by climate change—may be providing a long-term source of conflict between the two giants of North America. While on the economic front all talk is currently of integration and falling trade barriers, battles are already being waged by the grassroots both sides of the border against resource plunder and mega-development schemes. These could eventually mean war between the two longtime allies if a populist government comes to power in Ottawa and tries to turn off the spigot of south-bound resources—and the Pentagon has already drawn up plans for this contingency. Rumbles are already being felt in such unlikely places as the rolling farmlands of upstate New York, the grizzly-haunted pine forests of Montana’s wild Flathead Valley, the windswept high plains of northern Alberta, and the remote passages of the Arctic Sea.
Peak Oil: Alternatives, Renewables, And Impacts
This article examines scientific and government studies in order to provide reliable conclusions about Peak Oil and its future impacts. Independent studies indicate that global oil production peaked in 2006 (or will peak within a few years) and will decline until all recoverable oil is depleted within several decades. Because global oil demand is increasing, declining production will soon generate high energy prices, inflation, unemployment, and irreversible economic depression.
Consumers feeling the helium squeeze
The gas that floats balloons also powers industrial and scientific projects. And it’s disappearing fast.
EnCana takes its bat and ball to Texas
In late September, EnCana Corp. chief executive Randy Eresman issued a warning to the Alberta government: You follow through on proposals to sharply increase oil and gas royalties, and we’ll redeploy our deep pools of cash elsewhere. Now, it looks like Mr. Eresman is putting his money where his mouth is.
Guangdong passengers fume at diesel shortage
China’s diesel shortage has hit the transport industry hard, particularly bus drivers and truckers, who now have to join long queues at diesel stations for a few quarts of diesel each time.
The extra waiting time for buses to fill up on fuel, which is reportedly at least a half hour at each stop, has resulted in a slew of customer complaints. Trucking companies, on the other hand, are faced with service disruption and late deliveries.
Ireland: Motorists warned of rising petrol prices
Topaz Energy, which operates the Shell and Statoil network of forecourts, today warned consumers to expect a significant increase in the price of petrol, diesel and home heating oil.
“While price increases for the consumer are of course regrettable, in the face of the 40 per cent crude oil increase since mid-August, today’s decision became unavoidable,” said chief executive Danny Murray.
Q: How high must price of fuel go before motorists are driven off the roads? A: £1.86
MOTORISTS are so attached to their cars they would continue to drive until fuel nearly doubled in price, according to a survey published today.
The Philippines: Can voluntary oil demand management save the day?
But years since former President Fidel V. Ramos signed up independent power producers as a quick fix to the country’s supply woes, government forecasts indicate that as the economy continues to grow, an increase in electricity requirements in the next 10 years would result in a “critical period” for Luzon in 2010, for the Visayas in 2011, and for Mindanao in 2009.
Tanzania waives import duty on cement to ease supply deficit
Klaus Hvassing, chairman of the Tanzania Chapter of the East African Cement Producers Association told The East African that recent fuel hikes and growing demand for cement from dealers in the Great Lakes region was the main cause of surging of prices in the local market.
The Switch Has Been Flipped: It’s Too Late For Solutions
Tim’s comment resonated with my experience in teaching history to college students who incessantly ask, “But what can we do?” when I systematically lay out the reality of the corporatocracy the United States has become, energy depletion, climate change, and of course, the police state in which we now reside. When I answer the students with my perception of options rather than solutions, they tend to sink in their chairs and tell me that they feel overwhelmed not only with the daunting reality of the planetary situation but even worse, that they wanted me to offer them “hope”, and are disappointed that I instead offer them responsibility. I tell them that since I don’t have any “hope” it would be disingenuous of me to attempt to offer it to anyone else.
Pakistan, the heart of a global crisis
General Musharraf has declared martial law in Pakistan. Chuck Prince is being pressed to resign as chief executive of Citigroup, the world’s largest bank, apparently because of losses on sub-prime mortgages. The oil price has risen to $96 a barrel; the gold price has risen above $800 an ounce. That is the world in a nutshell, an international crisis, a credit crisis, an energy crisis and a dollar crisis.
Pakistan: Locally-produced gas prices should be de-linked from world prices
It is notable here that the price of gas has been raised by Rs 26 per kg during the past 19 months as a result of linking it to the international market.
The price of LPG is on inclining side in the international market and recent hike has passed all previous records. The producers’ price of LPG has reached at $ 745 per metric ton from $655 per metric ton. The gas registered an increase of $ 500 in the international market during the last 8 years.
Hawiyah NGL project is now nearly 90% complete
The giant Hawiyah Natural Gas Liquids Recovery Plant (HNRP) Project is on track for completion, and to get all the key players on board for the final push, Saudi Aramco and contractor CEOs met recently for the in-depth review and work progress of the project.
Kurt Cobb: Let’s play “Peak Oil Shock Me”
An increasingly popular parlor game among peak oil activists is to see who can serve up the most shocking morsel of peak oil news at any one sitting. There are now plenty of morsels to choose from on an almost daily basis. Here are some recent samples…
‘Designer biofuels’ may replace gas
The mysterious liquid potions that keep scientists at LS9 Inc. so busy at their crowded lab in San Carlos may be unrecognizable, but they someday might become the world’s two most valuable fuels: gasoline and diesel.
South Korean firm exploring nuclear power plant in Philippines
A South Korean company has opened exploratory talks with the Philippine government on the possibility of reactivating the country’s mothballed Bataan nuclear power plant, a company official said.
Energy Peril (Review of Renewable City)
In a new book, the author paints a dire scenario but he underestimates the pain of the solution.
The plastic fantastic recycling trap
It’s the underlying assumption of modern design: Everything made by human hands will eventually outlive its worth. Consider, for example, the Swiffer. By almost every existing measure, it’s better than mop, broom and dustpan. In fact, each single-use cloth is all but indestructible and no recycling program on the planet is equipped to deal with it. Point being: It’s not the fault of the Swiffer, the failure is in the design structure of this fossil-fuelled age.
Pemex and Mexico Could Be Drowning in a Sea of Oil
Because of decades of mismanagement, corruption, sloppy planning and excessive waste, PEMEX (the state oil monopoly) is in no position to benefit from the market situation.
Wanted: Any enemy with oil
When Venezuela’s popular and democratically elected leader was removed temporarily in a military coup in 2002, Bush immediately recognized the coup leaders as the new government.
When Hamas won the last elections in Palestine, the United States refused to accept the democratic view of that nation.
Also, don’t forget, we destroyed democracy in Iran in 1953 because the Iranians wanted greater control of their oil.
Oil’s Recent Rise Not Result Of Supply Or Politics, It’s …Traders!
Analysts also say that the past 10 weeks have demonstrated the power of traders at investment houses. Deutsche Bank oil economist Adam Sieminski, who spent six months on the bank’s trading desk, said it is important not to underestimate the role of sentiment and technical factors, such as patterns of price movements and the need to hedge risks in other markets. Now, when investors hold a large number of options to buy oil at a price of $100, he says, “it’s almost like magnetism. It draws prices to that level.”
Ethical focus is booming
“Alternative energy has been the flavour of the year. A lot of people have woken up to what’s going on in the world. Whether or not you believe in climate change or peak oil, it doesn’t really matter. Governments can’t afford to dismiss that a lot of smart people are saying.'’
The Threat of Agrofuels – Industrialized GMO Monocultures Will Only Hurt Farmers
Modern corporate outfits demand high volume supply from industrial monocultures of corn, soybeans, sugar cane,
and increasingly palm oil. Most ironic is to see the vehicles of organic co-ops driving around the Midwest powered
by biotech agrofuels. Given how reluctant most people are to consume genetically engineered foods directly, the
only other outlet for these dubious “wonder” crops is as high fructose corn syrup, factory farm livestock rations,
or agrofuel feedstocks. In the research pipeline are agrofuels derived from yet other food sources – cassava,
wheat, barley, as well as cellulosic ethanol derived from switchgrass, crop residue, and even biotech trees. Some
scientists are also working on genetically engineered algae for agrofuel production.
Sleepwalking over the oil peak
If you are an avid listener of ABC radio you will hear the words “peak oil” pop out now and then with increasing frequency. Fran Kelly mentions it on Breakfast (John Anderson on food shocks oil dependency and drought), a caller to Australia Talks Back mentions it with respect to food prices, even news stories on oil are introduced with lines such as, “In a world with oil peaking…”. ABC TV has broadcast its excellent documentary Crude, The Incredible Journey Of Oil. There are occasional articles relating to it in the Fairfax and Murdoch press. One could almost start to believe that peak oil consciousness is spreading into the Australian mainstream and that we can soon discuss how to prepare to cope with it rather than debate whether or not it will occur. But if you believe this you are wrong. The great majority of Australians have simply no idea that oil production will soon be decreasing, and the few that do mostly do not comprehend the extent to which this will change their way of life.
Kunstler: Ignoring the Obvious
Behind the hoarding dynamics are several clear circumstances. One biggie is the growing export crisis, described by geologist Jeffrey Brown. Countries like Saudi Arabia and Mexico that sell oil to importing nations like the USA and Japan are using more of their own oil and producing less. Mexico’s trajectory is so steep (due to the severe depletion of its giant Cantarell oil field) that it could easily go from being America’s Number 3 source of imports to zero in less than five years. The anticipated yearly growth in worldwide oil demand next year will equal 80 percent of the USA’s entire oil production.
Cheap solar power poised to undercut oil and gas by half
Within five years, solar power will be cheap enough to compete with carbon-generated electricity, even in Britain, Scandinavia or upper Siberia. In a decade, the cost may have fallen so dramatically that solar cells could undercut oil, gas, coal and nuclear power by up to half. Technology is leaping ahead of a stale political debate about fossil fuels.
Declaration of Principles to Be Issued at the Third OPEC Summit
Heads of state and oil ministers from the 12 Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members will be meeting in Riyadh Nov. 17-18 for a rare summit, the third in the cartel’s history, at which they will hammer out the details of what is to be a historic “declaration of principles.”
Though petrodollar coffers are overflowing, there is no shortage of ominous clouds on the horizon providing a backdrop to the meeting: The diplomatic breakdown associated with Iran building up its nuclear technology capabilities, the ongoing war on terrorism along with conflict in Iraq, Afghanistan, as well as Nigeria and other OPEC nations, the increasing likelihood of a global economic slowdown and the U.S. dollar losing its grip as the world’s reserve currency among them.
Gore Nightmare Wins as Europe Pays to Ship U.S. Coal
Now that the price of coal is at a historic low relative to oil, there’s no stopping consumers and producers alike from embracing Al Gore’s nightmare.
A ton of U.S. coal is so cheap at about $47 that European utilities will pay $50 to ship it across the Atlantic, according to Galbraith’s Ltd., a 263-year-old London shipbroker. While oil and coal cost the same as recently as 1998, West Texas Intermediate crude is five times more expensive after climbing to a record $96.24 on Nov. 1.
Valero reports L.A. refinery unit shutdown
Valero Energy Corp’s 135,000 barrel per day (bpd) Los Angeles-area refinery in Wilmington, California, reported a unit shutdown on Friday afternoon, according to notices filed with state pollution regulators.
…A Valero representative was not immediately available to discuss refinery operations.
Average price of gas rises to $2.96 per gallon
The national average price for gasoline rose about 16 cents over the last two weeks, according to a survey released Sunday.
The average price of regular gasoline on Friday was $2.96 a gallon, mid-grade was $3.08, and premium was $3.19, oil industry analyst Trilby Lundberg said.
Yemeni tribesmen blow up oil pipeline
Yemeni tribesmen blew up a pipeline that carries crude oil to a Red Sea export facility on Monday but export operations were unaffected, security and oil officials said.
Contrarian Currency Trade: The Canadian Dollar
Peak oil aside (which I argued for last year, only to see crude price collapse), arguing about whether crude is worth $100 or $70 is another issue. Fortunately for long crude position speculators, this runup occurred during a time of seasonal weak demand for gasoline and heating oil, primary byproducts of crude which traditionally guide demand for crude. These depressed crack spread margins have enabled a runup to occur without demand destruction to immediately become apparent. Now at $96 crude and with RBOB gasoline cracks widening back from $2 to $6 (note a $37 peak crack this spring), wholesale gasoline levels are back to all time highs. This may put a damper in the bulls’ optimism. Outside the US, Chinese are already rationing diesel. Demand is getting hit at these levels.
Tibetans wake up to nosebleeds in super-dry autumn
Moisture has become a luxury in the Tibetan capital of Lhasa where many locals are waking up to nosebleeds in the dry autumn, state media said on Monday as the Himalayan region faces growing threat of global warming.
“As it stands, there is little water component in the air in the Sunlight City which sits at 3,700 meters above sea level, making the weather extremely dry and things flammable,” Xinhua news agency quoted the Lhasa Observatory as saying.
Sunday Post Rescue
Posted on November 5, 2007 | Filed Under | Leave a Comment
-The ODAC/EU Newsletter from 1 NOV.
-The Canadian Finance Round-Up from 2 NOV.
-The ANZ Bullroarer from 4 NOV.
-and then finally a local story from Australian energy politics…”The Real ‘PPP’: Populism, Probity, and Peak-oil in the River City’s Tunnel Deal.”
Six steps to “getting” the global ecological crisis
Posted on November 5, 2007 | Filed Under | Leave a Comment
This is a guest post by John Feeney, Ph.D. Trained as a psychologist, John is today an
environmental writer and activist in Boulder, Colorado. He began
investigating environmental issues while fighting destructive
residential development in a small Iowa town where he and his family
lived for two years. His research pointed inevitably to the
interacting roles played by population growth, the drive for economic
growth, and our reliance on fossil energy in fueling the ecological
crisis we now face. His website is called Growth Is Madness.
Some of us who examine and discuss environmental matters are constantly puzzled and frustrated by the seeming inability of elected officials, environmental organizations, and environmental and political writers to “get” the nature of our ecological plight. Could it be they’re simply unaware of the ecological principles which enable one to understand it?
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Since some undoubtedly are getting it, and in light of the warnings in the UN’s latest report on the state of the global environment, below is a brief list of axioms and observations from population ecology with which everyone should be familiar. Most are taught in introductory level ecology and environmental science classes. They appear sequentially, so the reader can step logically through a progression which should make clear the nub of the global ecological challenge before us…
A finite earth can support only a limited number of humans. There is therefore a global “carrying capacity” for humans. A basic definition of carrying capacity is “The maximum number of people, or individuals of a particular species, that a given part of the environment can maintain indefinitely.”
It is an axiom of ecological science that a population which has grown larger than the carrying capacity of its environment (e.g., the global ecosystem) degrades its environment. It uses resources faster than they are regenerated by that environment, and produces waste faster than the environment can absorb it without being degraded. Some definitions of carrying capacity include this element of environmental degradation. Such a population is said to be in “overshoot.”
Al Bartlett sometimes writes, “A SELF-EVIDENT TRUTH: If any fraction of the observed global warming can be attributed to the activities of humans, then this constitutes positive proof that the human population, living as we do, has exceeded the carrying capacity of the Earth.” The same can be said of much of the rest of the extensive and growing human-caused ecological degradation we see today, including the breakdown of the web of life indicated by the ongoing Sixth Extinction. It is symptomatic of having exceeded the earth’s capacity to sustain our current numbers for the long term. It is, in fact, proof that under current conditions we have done so. [1] [2]
It’s axiomatic, as well, that a population can only temporarily overshoot carrying capacity. It will subsequently decline in number, to return to a level at or below carrying capacity. That is, though a population may grow in size until it is too large for existing resources to sustain it, it must subsequently decline.
Because it degrades it’s environment, a population in overshoot erodes existing carrying capacity so that fewer members of that species will be supported by that habitat in the future.
Our extraction of nonrenewable resources such as oil and coal has allowed us temporarily to exceed the earth’s carrying capacity for our species. As these supplies are drawn down, our numbers continue to increase, and ecological degradation progresses, the number of humans will, of necessity, come down. Whether we have a hand in voluntarily and humanely bringing them down, or simply let nature manage the whole thing for us, is up to us.
It seems unlikely anyone could fully comprehend the six steps above, and still deny we face a grave, worldwide ecological crisis. But for some, self gain or political ideology tied closely to self-image might be enough to fuel such denial. For others, I hope this little essay is informative.
For an in-depth analysis of the same and related issues try William Catton’s Overshoot.
_______
[1] Obviously, not all environmental degradation is proof of overshoot. An individual example of ecological damage may have nothing to do with a species having exceeded carrying capacity. Those examples, however, which reflect our society-wide ways of living, such as CO2 emissions, overfishing, and habitat destruction, do offer such proof.
[2] For humans, carrying capacity varies somewhat as a function of how we live. Yet no matter how we live, we cannot eliminate carrying capacity constraints. It seems unlikely, for instance, that even a hypothetical complete switch to renewable energy, as essential as it ultimately is, would, in itself, drop humanity back to within the limits of carrying capacity. In a time when groundwater depletion, habitat destruction, and the depletion of other non-energy resources constitute a large portion of our ecological challenge, we would likely remain in overshoot due to our sheer numbers.
Peak oil coverage on CNBC
Posted on November 5, 2007 | Filed Under | Leave a Comment
CNBC had a lot of peak oil coverage Friday (November 2, 2007). Included were interviews with Matt Simmons (author of Twilight In the Desert) and Vijay Vaitheeswaran (author of Zoom!), which is under the fold.
Crude Realities
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Running On Empty
(Clicking on the images will take you to YouTube to see the videos. An experiment, to see if it runs more smoothly than embedding them here.)
Re: Question on solar article from Dave
Posted on November 5, 2007 | Filed Under | Leave a Comment
… From: Eric Pfeiffer To: energyresources@yahoogroups.com Sent: Monday, November 05, 2007 7:11 AM Subject: [energyresources] Question on solar article from
Would this be useful for members of this forum??
Posted on November 5, 2007 | Filed Under | Leave a Comment
Just read this - and for some, at least, in the same time zone, it could be a way of getting some valuable communication on ‘what’s needed to change’ issues. I
mining the moon
Posted on November 5, 2007 | Filed Under | Leave a Comment
http://sixtyminutes.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=313352 Back to the Moon [extract] Nine years after Apollo 17 returned to earth, scientists discovered the
Re: Something we can do with sequestered CO2
Posted on November 5, 2007 | Filed Under | Leave a Comment
Ok, here we go again. Sure you can convert CO_2 into methane, just add water and energy. But wait a minute! Didn’t most of this CO_2 come about as a
Peak oil - Nov 5
Posted on November 5, 2007 | Filed Under Peak oil | Leave a Comment
Staff, Energy Bulletin. New ‘disaster’ movie warns world of oil apocalypse
Kunstler: Ignoring the obvious
When will Russia (and the world) decline?
Sleepwalking over the oil peak in Australia
New presentations by Matt Simmons
November issue of ASPO newsletter
Peak Oil Review - November 5th, 2007
Posted on November 5, 2007 | Filed Under Peak oil | Leave a Comment
Tom Whipple, ASPO-USA. An executive summary of weekly news from a peak oil perspective, featuring:
- Production and prices
- Storms close down Mexican production and exports
- Sadad Al-Husseini gives an interview
- China - Shortages, a price hike and a new ASPO
- Energy briefs
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