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| What is Peak Oil? | |
| Why now? | |
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| Economy | |
| Geopolitical strife | |
| Catastrophe | |
| Meditations on Collapse | |
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| More evidence for an early Peak | |
| Whistle-blowers | |
| Technical papers | |
| Reputable News | |
| Governments admit | |
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Why now — surely there is plenty of oil!? This is the tricky bit — there is still a lot of oil in the ground but it is gradually becoming more difficult to mine, more 'dirty' and sour, and dwindling in daily volumes. Just a few years after the peak and there will not be enough cheap oil to meet demand. The end of the oil age is not when it "runs out" — it is when oil becomes too expensive for the average citizen or business. The end of the oil age is when the cheap oil runs out and we move into an era of ever higher prices. The following is a picture in very broad brushstrokes of the oil majors announcing the end of the oil age. Chevron have said it! "The era of easy oil is over!" writes the CEO at www.willyoujoinus.com OPEC have already said that light sweet crude is in decline. (Only the sour stuff is still increasing in production.) This backs up what Chevron has already stated, the era of easy oil is over. The age of sweet oil is turning sour. Exxon Mobile have announced that the entire world outside of OPEC is about to peak in its production of all oil categories in the next 5 years. That is a huge announcement. It tells us that we will be dependent on OPEC for any increase in worldwide demand. A senior Saudi oil geologist has stated to the New York Times that he believes Saudi oil will peak at about 12.5 to 15 million barrels a day. After that point, there can be no more growth in sour supply no matter what the world demands!
Once Saudi Arabia have peaked, then that's it — the world has peaked. (New York Times). Let me first say that this is not very probable. Despite the improved technology and massively increased funding for exploration, discovery of oil peaked four decades ago! We have never found as much oil as we did with the technology of 40 years ago! With much far more money to be made and amazing technology, we are still experiencing an alarming drop in oil discovery. We now burn oil 6 times faster than we find it. (You can examine these facts further under "Technical papers.") However, for the sake of the argument, assume we discover another three or four Saudi Arabia's to cover the next 20 years. (Maintaining "business as usual" has to allow for economic growth which will demand exponentially more oil.) Assume we learn that the peak is 20 years away. What then? Time to relax and party on? No! We would still need to take action on behalf of our children because the American Department of Energy Hirsch Report concluded it would take 20 years to wean off oil! Our "business as usual" mentality makes us more addicted with each year that passes. Every new SUV and every new mouth to feed increases our addiction to this vanishing resource. Arguing too much about the date of the peak ignores how fundamentally addicted we are to oil and how we are always consuming more of this resource. Our world population is growing and India and China are modernising, and yet oil is finite. It will eventually run out. But cheaply extracted economical oil will "run out" first. It just brings the catastrophe so much closer. So don't let arguments about a late peak fool you into a false sense of security. Firstly, they are just plain wrong and oil will peak soon, it is already too late. Also, this article by Kurt Cobb brilliantly summarizes the outcomes if we collectively prepare for an early peak only to find out the "dour peak oil crowd" were wrong. Basically, the Scout's motto of "Be prepared" is something us adults should take note of! ;-) Even if you still do not believe an early peak has been categorically proven, I hope that this introduction has at least given you a sense of the heated debate amongst petroleum specialists. Given the importance of oil to the world economy, I am amazed that this debate has not already resulted in a bipartisan international enquiry. So even if you are still unsure, does not being unsure form enough of a basis to take action? Are we all to remain unsure about our most important resource? Are we to blunder along in the dark? Are we to put our faith in government bureaucrats and just assume every "early peak" geologist is an attention seeking crank? Our mission statement is not like a murder trial where you have to be convinced “beyond reasonable doubt” before executing someone who may or may not be a criminal. (I am just asking you to put up a poster!) Instead, this is the “thing that goes bump in the night.” It is the alarm that something might be dreadfully wrong, and someone should go and look or we might be in terrible danger. Remember, there are 2 meanings to the "boy who cried wolf" story. I hope that as you read the 'Evidence for" pages you will have an open mind, ready to listen to senior geologists with a lifetime's experience in oil production. It is enough to convince me of the need for a massive oil audit and international agreement on oil cooperation akin to the Uppsala protocol. So while you might not be a 'true believer' yet, I hope that the evidence has convinced you of the need for a new audit, and that you can spare some time this week to put up a poster. Once governments agree to conduct an audit, the public will also demand to see the plan for life after the oil age. If there turns out to be more oil than the early peakers are claiming, then all the better. Governments would have focussed attention on the issue and the public would be aware of the need for massive changes before oil eventually did peak. I would love nothing more than to be proved completely and utterly wrong on this subject. There is not much fun in being right.
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