The spectrum between Peakniks and Doomers

The Spectrum between Peakniks and Doomers

Peaknik

Bookends on a range of paradigms

Dieoff not probable

Links to cheer doomers

Let us revisit the terms we looked at under Catastrophe.

Peaknik

A peaknik is a person who studies or has an interest in the Hubbert Peak theory of oil depletion and is concerned for the possible long effects on society. Peaknik may also refer to people involved in promoting public awareness of Peak Oil. The word Peaknik is a neologism - it a variation of the term peacenik. The use of "-nik" evokes a counterculture attitude to the status quo.

Effects on campaigning: The peaknik generally wants to raise awareness of peak oil so that society might mitigate at least some of the post-peak challenges.

The peaknik believes that there are many emergency actions that can be taken to ensure peak oil only causes a Greater Depression as society adapts to a more localized economic system. Peakniks might spend many hours studying policies for governments to implement, and will generally be very involved in raising awareness of the threats in peak oil so that we might solve them!

The scope of their studies is as vast as the multiple challenges of unemployment, aviation and automobile industry collapse, freight collapse, shipping changes and challenges to agriculture. However, the peaknik has some sense of hope and simply wants to alert society.

With the belief that society can be transformed and civilization saved, the peaknik campaigns both 'up' to government for political pressure and 'sideways' from citizen to citizen.

The peer-to-peer campaigning aims to increase grassroots momentum and speed action. If enough first world citizens can be educated then more sustainable living patterns can be enacted.

Or in some cases, the 'peaknik' may be so assured of a gentle recession as the marketplace adjusts to a life without oil that they don't even bother to campaign. Some in this rare case call themselves peakniks, but I don't. Other than agreeing that peak oil is here, what difference is there between them and a market economist? The economist wants us to just leave it up to the marketplace (bad move indeed if one has read the Hirsch report) and so does this 'peaknik'. I discourage them from claiming the name peaknik for themselves.

Middle ground

Some peakniks can see the potential for a catastrophe but are working to prevent one.

This tension between optimism and pessimism is discussed by author Richard Heinberg in his book Powerdown. He simply argues that we should be prepared for the worst and campaign for the best.

This peaknik applies the 'Precautionary Principle' to their thinking.

They are not as confident and optimistic as the pure peaknik. This 'Centralist' (I hate the term already) campaigns and works for immediate change in their own home and local community in case society collapses. They aim to have their local community providing their own local power, water, and food security. Yet they are not exclusively concentrating on their own backyard, and also campaign for public and government awareness to prevent a wider Malthusian catastrophe.

I would classify the www.postcarbon.org and www.communitysolutions.org websites as being generally Centralist Lifeboaters — as opposed to Doomer Lifeboaters.
It is the campaigning to government that marks them out as totally different to the Doomers.

The Socialite

I think most of us at Sydney Peak Oil felt it was fantastic to get together and just discuss peak oil without fearing ridicule or disbelief. It was great to meet peakniks from a variety of backgrounds and personality types. Guess what? There was no one common 'personality disorder!' (Other than maybe spending a lot of time on the net.)

Peaknik social meetings are quite worthwhile just for their own sake — however it is even more rewarding to see a campaign goal achieved! Let the socialite turn up to meetings. They may be a peaknik without much time for campaigning yet who adds something to the meeting and ultimately the whole movement. They might have some knowledge to share in general chit-chat or some contact to utilize. They don't have to hand out leaflets or present information to the government to 'qualify' for membership. As long as they can be quiet when there is work to be done, the more the merrier.

Effects on campaigning: They might have a few good jokes, raise moral and even contribute now and then — but watch the tendency to chat when there is work to be done.

Doomer

The term Doomer is sometimes used to describe peakniks that in addition to the normal peak oil concerns over oil depletion leading to a severe economic recession or Great Depression, also believes in the inevitability of a Malthusian Catastrophe at the end of the cheap oil era.

The Malthusian peak oiler would typically refer to the peaknik movie The End of Suburbia as peak oil lite — for those who cannot handle their peak oil straight. While the last 15 minutes of The End of Suburbia focuses on the local community solutions of New Urbanism, the dieoff community would argue that the movie fails to describe the inevitable Malthusian catastrophe. They protest that The End of Suburbia implies suburban sprawl will experience an orderly transition into New Urbanism. They reject this outright as an ecological and energetic impossibility without the Green Revolution, cheap oil transport, and cheap oil petro-chemicals and lubricants to enable the industrial manufacturing of New Urbanism. In other words, once oil has peaked, it's just too late to build New Urbanism. To my mind, they have a point — which is why I think we need an emergency war time economy right now.

Effects on campaigning: The doomer may believe that nothing can stop the catastrophic collapse of civilization. As such, they may be more interested in joining an eco-village Lifeboat than raising awareness. This is a strong part of the peak oil movement, and if individuals strongly believe that a catastrophe is inevitable, they would be looking to meet others to facilitate setting up a Lifeboat. By all means welcome them to your meeting. They may be prepared to raise awareness on a more local, 'getting ready' level than you are — while you might want to concentrate on State or Federal government campaigns.

If they inform anyone at all, it is to selectively encourage necessary tradespeople to join their village and add their vital skills to the security of that village.

There are websites that promote a catastrophist view and sell booklets to help survive the coming storm. Oildecline.com has a short, cheap booklet to this effect.

Or they might feel even a Lifeboat is pointless. I asked a doomer friend why he was not already on a Lifeboat. He replied, "Why bother Dave? The Road Warriors will just come and get me on the farm." (Road Warriors being a reference to the gangs that ruled the post-oil world of Mad Max 2.)

Some doomers may not want peak oil awareness to become public knowledge as it might increase competition in setting up their Lifeboat eco-village. This might sound extreme, even cult like, but many doomers have studied this matter and campaigned for sustainability for decades, and are convinced that governments and corporations are not going to change until it is too late. To the true doomer, public awareness would just bring on the panic and collapse that much earlier. Be aware of the extreme doomer that prevents campaigning, the 'Apocalyptic Outsider'.

Apocalyptic Outsiders

Some members may become disruptive to the group, and have such extreme views that it might be helpful for the group if they were asked to form their own social group... in other words, not come to your group!

Unfortunately peak oil attracts some unusual types. This is where peak oil knowledge has become a cult-like pathology. In cults the extreme views of members have placed them outside the mainstream. Because they feel alienated and judged by the mainstream of society, they return the favour and judge society. As such, extremist cult members like the Branch Davidians of Waco, Texas have been referred to as Apocalyptic Outsiders.

I have noticed the tendency for some extreme Doomers to even want to keep peak oil to themselves. This is not characteristic of all Doomers, please don't take offense if you hold little hope for civilization at the end of the oil age. I am speaking about a very specific mindset. It seems that the Apocalyptic Outsider has too much of their identity caught up in their end of civilization belief system — to the point that if society did Powerdown successfully, these individuals would be saddened and disappointed.

In other words, if civilization did not come crashing down after the peak, who would this person be?

The characteristics that mark the Apocalyptic Outsider are:-

a tendency to gloat smugly over the coming destruction of civilization.
a judgmental attitude to the uninitiated (and even non-Doomer Peakniks are scolded for their inferior position.)
a tendency to kick back and enjoy esoteric discussions over the end of civilization — rather than actually doing anything about it
very harsh criticism of those who do try to mitigate peak oil and do try to raise awareness to prevent dieoff.
Is different to a Doomer Socialite who might only be there to share the angst — this Doomer is obstructive, critical, destroys group moral, and is ultimately attention seeking.

This navel gazing mindset can be a waste of time at meetings. Not only does little get achieved with this critical attitude present, but it stifles brainstorming and destroys activism. This version of the Doomer wants to fatalistically congratulate themselves for their clever perceptions rather than campaign, or even set up a Lifeboat as many other Doomers would.

The irony is that these Apocalyptic Outsiders often object to the term Doomer as derogatory, but are the very people that might make the term derogatory! The more balanced (but still understandably anxious) Malthusian Peaknik would love to see the best of civilization preserved and dieoff prevented, and probably has a tongue-in-cheek appreciation of the term Doomer. The Apocalyptic Outsider is so precious about their Malthusian nightmares being the only correct hypothesis that their zeal makes them over react to a playful term.

Your group leaders may have to discuss whether or not the Apocalyptic Outsiders should form their own social group. (IE: Leave your group!) It's harsh to have to spell this out, but peak oil awareness is too important to let this clouded and self-obsessed thinking interfere with meetings.

My position?

I'm a peaknik. I think peak oil is very, very serious — but I am also humble enough to admit I don't really know what is going to happen.

In other words, read more, and then make up your own mind! ;-)

Dieoff is possible

My child nearly died from Leukemia in 2004. I know what it is like to have a child waste away before your eyes. I know what it is like to be a parent in pain, willing to do anything, desperate to save a child’s life. I have first hand experience of that desperation, and it has changed me. I can also see the potential for previously civil and polite parents to start screaming and rioting as food becomes more and more expensive and supermarkets run low on supplies. There is nothing that can induce a sense of helpless panic and rage as fear for your child. It is parental and public panic that might cause some regions of first world nations to descend into chaos — New Orleans style. Only a massive government awareness program and authoritative, scientifically informed policy response can prevent anarchy in our mega cities. And I just don’t see this happening yet, which is why I am sympathetic to many Doomers while ultimately disagreeing with them.

Every year that our governments procrastinate preparation is a year wasted, and inflames the crisis. We already have technologies to live a comfortable high technology lifestyle in walking distance communities, yet we currently seem to be building more car dependent suburbia. This is immoral, an abrogation of the government’s duty of care to their citizens. Yet on it goes, in complete denial of the scientific data.

Government denial has made many leading Peakniks now fear Catastrophe. Heinberg once presented hope if governments suddenly dived into action. He has recently stated that collapse may be inevitable. (See his review of Mediations on collapse).

If a city collapsed into anarchy, my concern is that there might not be any help from “outside”. Every where will be suffering the effects of the Greater Depression, everywhere will be crippled in their ability to help others by the permanently decreasing supplies of fuel. Complex systems collapse without a high level of energy and maintenance to support them. My concern is that without running a scientifically informed taskforce and enacting wise policies years in advance, a local city council is going to be completely unprepared for the magnitude and intricacy of this crisis.

If a city “goes critical” like New Orleans, there may not be 500 buses to pull them out after 5 days of anarchy. This time every city will also be facing the multiple systemic challenges of transport collapse, agricultural reform, and societal repositioning on a scale not seen since Europe had to rebuild after World War 2. They may not have the resources to help a neighbouring city in trouble. If things are bad enough at home, they may not even care.

I still believe in the power of a big government “Manhattan Project" to turn this around, but I am wondering when it is going to start? I believe we already have plans to survive this, we just need the willpower. Raising that awareness and willpower is what this website is all about.

Note: I use the word survive intentionally. Business as usual is over — the Greater Depression is on its way. The Hirsch report basically says so... we've simply left it too late and are going to experience some real economic pain. Get out of debt! On the other hand, there is a vast difference between the Greater Depression and Mad Max.

Dieoff not probable

1/ Previous civilizations that collapsed did not have our scientific method.

We have a vast accumulation of knowledge that might help us adapt in time. Our current systems are dependent on oil, and a Greater Depression is unavoidable. "Economic Growth" and business as usual are over, period. But there is a vast difference between a Greater Depression of say 30 to 40 years as society adjusts, and predicting the end of the rule of law and civilization.

There are many things we will have to do to adjust. Some things will become harder, and require a lot more money and effort. Food will cost more. Energy will cost more. City designs will change. But we have the ability to analyse the situation scientifically and make the appropriate city and lifestyle plans. The previous civilizations that experienced dieoff (and are quoted by some Doomers as a pre-text for their proof text) just did not have our scientific method to remedy their mistakes.

We live in an era of immense change, change that is accelerating. Sure this will slow down somewhat after peak oil (the doomer laughs here at the understatement) however, I sometimes think Doomers need to read a variety of websites. Many only read the same old cannon fodder material, and do not open their paradigms to new information.

Peak oil is very serious indeed, however I wish the doomers would read a few of the following articles and maybe develop some hope for the future and motivation to campaign with us peakniks. :-)

2/ Previous civilizations did not have our level of democracy.

For all its faults and impotence in the face of powerful multinational corporations, we have a democratic system. Free speech is allowed. Once there is a strong enough grassroots movement, things will have to change. The laws will reflect the new realities of energy decline. God willing, we can survive this because of people like you and me taking this threat seriously. Even www.dieoff.com recognizes this.

The following graph illustrates what may happen if governments get involved, or if they abandon their duty to "market solutions". Click on the image to read the full article from http://www.dieoff.org/page143.htm

I campaign because governments have the power to institute change. Sure they are currently asleep at the wheel right now, but we are going to change this, right? Because of my sons' cancer, I am stuck in Sydney... and my family lives or dies with this civilization. So I have to do my bit. The table above is both my hope and my despair. It is my hope because it looks like there is a significant chance with government involvement. It is my despair because they are not even aware of the problem.

(November 2005 edit: Government awareness is slowly increasing, thanks to my friends at Sydney Peak Oil.)

3/ Previous civilizations did not have our free press.

Yes I've seen "The Corporation" and "Outfoxed". But as oil prices increase and we start to protest, this story will finally break through to headline status. The internet is a powerful tool for education (it's how I found out about peak oil). Scientists informing ordinary citizens CAN get the message out — if those scientists have the big picture.

We are already having some small measure of success. Just see my "newspapers" section, or check the latest reports at EnergyBulletin.net

These are the three points that give me any hope. However, the governments have not started the "Powerdown program" yet. There is no emergency construction of railways, sewerage reclamation plants to save some fertilizer, and renewable energy. It is all just left to the blind market, the profiteering car industries, and the outright polluting and dangerous oil companies.

At this stage I think I can visualize a world without oil — in high technology eco-city walking distance communities. Modern medicine, the internet, all sorts of modern conveniences could be saved... but only if we act now.

The challenge is how to get from here to there. Please note that I am not a scientist, but a lay person trying to understand the threat. I could be wrong — there might not be any hope, the survivalists might be right. Please read the dieoff websites and check the data for yourself.

The questions revolve around what alternative energy can and cannot do, how much food can be grown without the "Green Revolution", how many people planet earth can support after the oil age, and what you ultimately believe about human behaviour in this crisis.

Lastly, I refuse to adopt an extremist Doomer mindset because that seems to be a self-fulfilling prophecy. If all peakniks joined a Lifeboat and chose to "ignore civilization to death" — and let citizens and governments blunder blindly into the future, we would be partly responsible for what might happen.

Links to cheer up Doomers

Try challenging the inevitability of your Malthusian position, and seeing what a little hope can do towards campaign motivation! Depression can cripple motivation, it really can. Try seeing your scenarios of total anarchic collapse as worst case scenarios you might prevent! It might not happen, it really might not — and all that late night bellyaching in Doomer internet forums could have been put to good campaign use.

Read through the various Solutions I present on this site.

Apocaphilia is an interesting article by Worldchanging, who document the latest in renewable energy and systemic changes to business. Some call this site "lite green" with a derogatory sneer. I simply call it encouraging. Worldchanging are great at challenging dieoff preconceptions — especially when it comes to smart grids, high ERoEI renewable energy sources, and other means to energy efficiency. They get the challenges, they really do — however they also have their finger on the pulse of many other converging memes and technological innovations.