Oil Megaproject Update (July 2008)
Posted on July 3, 2008 | Filed Under Our Future
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This is an update on the Wikipedia Oil Megaproject Database
maintained by Oil
Megaprojects task force (Ace, Stuart Staniford,
myself and many others). The database contains now more than 425 separate entries and is growing everyday. Despite the database growth, the outcome seems to become more pessimistic with time. The derived net new capacity (i.e. once depletion from existing production is included) is around 1 mbpd until 2010 with a jump at 2 mbpd in 2008 then depletion may dominate.
Possible
future supply capacity scenario for crude oil and NGL based on the
Wikipedia Oil
Megaproject database. The resource base post-2002 decline rate is a linearly
increasing rate from 0% to 4.5% between 2003 and 2008 then
constant at 4.5% afterward. The decline rate for each annual addition
is 4.5% after first year.
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Below is the evolution of the new supply additions since the beginning of the project compiled
by year of first oil:
December 2007
January 2008
February 2008
March 2008
May 2008
June 2008
We can clearly see the initial 2008 and 2009 peaks wearing out with
time due mainly to delays. Now the situation does not look so good:
Possible new gross and
net new supply additions compiled by year of first oil. Crude oil + NGL
monthly production from the EIA. The resource base post-2002
decline
is a linearly
increasing rate from 0% to 4.5% between 2003 and 2008 then
constant
at 4,5% afterward. The decline rate for each annual addition is 4.5%
after first year.
Below is a possible scenario for future supply assuming a 4.5% decline
rate.
Possible future supply
scenario for crude oil and NGL based on the Wikipedia Oil Megaproject
database. The resource base post-2002 decline is a linearly
increasing decline rate from 0% to 4.5% between 2003 and 2008 then
constant at 4.5% afterward. The decline rate for each annual addition
is 4.5% after first year.
This scenario seems to agree with this recent statement from Ray Leonard:
“By 2010, the production of the fuel that has driven the world’s economy will start to rapidly decline. This will conflict with the steadily increasing demand for oil. The collision of these two trends will lead to shortages and increased prices, providing a strong incentive to shift to alternative fuel resources…Due to unequal distribution through the world of oil and gas supply and consumption, [the upcoming] transition will result in significant shifts in global power and wealth.”
Many thanks to Ace who has diligently updated the
data and put more than 500 separate contributions.
Finally, maintaining this database is a lot of work and it is crucial
to track delays, project final approval, etc., so I’d like to repeat
our appeal:
the more folks in the
TOD community head over to the Wikipage and help, the faster we’ll know
what’s really going on here.
Related stories:
Update
on Megaproject Megaproject
Help
us List Megaprojects
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